Winter 2025: Pressures on the
Care Sector –
Winter pressures on our care sector are a yearly struggle, with the latest data over summer and considering our Cost of Living Crisis and the current economic strain: Is this year going to be more challenging than previous years? What is the impact on our local communities?
What Lies Ahead?
Rising Pressures on Health and Care
As we draw into our winter season, we are all too aware of the pressures that surface each year across A&E departments, hospitals, and the wider care sector. Every winter, demand outstrips capacity, resulting in moments of critical, compromised care.
This year, the challenges are even greater. With a deepening economic downturn, funding cuts, strikes, record staff shortages, and councils on the brink of financial collapse, the sector is facing a perfect storm.
According to the latest NHS data, there were 2.31 million attendances at A&E in September 2025, a 7% increase compared with the same month last year. Waiting lists continue to rise despite record numbers of elective cases being managed over the summer.
While these figures reflect hospital pressure, the root causes are complex. Economic stress, poverty, and social hardship have a profound impact on health. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that consumer inflation remained high in August, with ongoing increases in essential costs such as food, energy, and housing. These daily pressures worsen both physical and mental health, driving a greater need for medical and social care support.
(ONS, Consumer Price Inflation, August 2025)
GP and Primary Care Shortages
According to the British Medical Association (BMA), there are now 957 fewer fully qualified GPs in England than in September 2015. Full-time GP roles have declined since 2017, and 1,426 GP practices have closed since 2015.
These closures often stem from staff retirements and the inability to recruit new partners or locum cover. With fewer GPs available, patient demand is spilling over into hospitals and emergency departments — a chain reaction that increases waiting times and pressure across the entire care system.
The Financial Strain on Community Care
In April 2025, new National Insurance (NI) contribution rules for care providers came into effect, adding an estimated £940 million in costs to the social care sector.
(According to the Nuffield Trust's estimated effect in November 2024), This financial blow is already forcing some care providers to scale back services or close their doors entirely.
Meanwhile, many local councils have frozen care fee uplifts or introduced only minimal increases of around 5%, leaving a funding shortfall that providers must absorb. (From Community Care's article looking into the council budget release August 2025)
In today’s economic climate, that often means care organisations must choose between operating at a loss or reducing services.
This cycle creates a critical risk heading into winter: when community care capacity falls, hospitals struggle to discharge patients, causing bed-blocking that further exacerbates A&E overcrowding.
Local Focus: Somerset (Including Mendip) and Devon
Somerset: A System Under Strain
Somerset Council is currently facing a £52.2 million budget gap for 2025/26. Nearly two-thirds of its total spending already goes to adult and children’s social care. The council has applied for exceptional financial support from the central government and proposed a 7.5% council tax increase to help close the gap.
(Somerset Council Budget Update, 2025)
Last year, adult social care services overspent by £17.4 million, showing that financial pressures are already pushing budgets beyond planned limits. The council’s Adult Social Care Strategy (2023–2026) highlights rising energy, workforce, and cost-of-living factors as major risks to sustainability.
(Somerset Adult Social Care Strategy)
Somerset’s system boasts strong leadership and an innovative micro-provider network; however, reviews by the Local Government Association (LGA) caution that staffing levels and reliance on key personnel leave little room for unexpected winter surges.
Devon: Closures and Workforce Pressures
In March 2024, Devon County Council approved the closure of six day services supporting older adults and people with learning disabilities — including centres in Okehampton, Tiverton, and Kingsbridge.
(Devon County Council News, 2024)
An LGA peer review also identified concerns about the fragility of Devon’s care market, where some providers are operating below capacity while others face severe staffing shortages. The review urged the creation of a comprehensive workforce development plan to support sustainable recruitment and retention — including international staff.
(LGA Peer Challenge, Devon, 2024)
March 2025 Exeter Observer highlighted the perilous state of Devon County finances, which is well known to be have been hit hard over previous years.
Summary: A Winter of Fragility and Uncertainty
All indicators point toward a difficult winter ahead.
Demand is rising across A&E and GP services.
Costs are increasing, squeezing care providers and councils alike.
Workforce shortages continue to strain both the NHS and the social care sector.
In regions such as Somerset and Devon, where local authorities are already financially stretched, the risk of delayed discharges, care gaps, and hospital overcrowding is high.
If emergency funding or structural support does not arrive in time, communities could see a tangible reduction in available care — especially for the elderly, disabled, and those living in poverty.
Staying Informed and Prepared
• Check eligibility for local care and support funding: Somerset Council – Help with Paying for Care
https://www.somerset.gov.uk/care-and-support-for-adults/help-with-paying-for-care-and-support/
• Devon County Council conducts financial assessments to determine what a person must pay toward their residential or nursing care. The Client Financial Services team manages this.
https://www.royaldevon.nhs.uk/media/5slid2w5/paying-for-residential-and-nursing-care-dcc.pdf
The council’s “Paying for residential and nursing care” factsheet outlines how income, capital, and savings are evaluated to derive contributions.
Devon’s policy allows raising council tax (adult social care precept) to help fund care services.
• Report service concerns or provider issues via your local council helpline.
• Stay updated on local health alerts and vaccination campaigns.
• Community awareness and early planning will be key to protecting our most vulnerable residents through the challenging months ahead.